麒麟座α流星雨未来的爆发趋势(下次2019年?)

近期爆发时间:2019年?,2043年?


简介

麒麟座α流星雨或11月的麒麟座流星雨是一个国际缩写为AMO的流星雨:不要与另一个国际缩写为MON的麒麟座流星雨混淆了。这个流星雨出现在每年的11月15日至25日,高峰期出现在21或22日。流星的速度约为 65公里/秒,通常的ZHR非常低,但在某些场合中,它原本是显著的流星雨,而它的特点是持续时间不少于半小时:这种类型的流星雨,称为爆发型,在1925、1935、1985和1995都曾发生。在1995年的爆发已经可以确认 辐射点和峰期的太阳黄经,在不到一小时的简短与有效的爆发时间内,辐射点被确认是麒麟座α星。但母天体,可能是彗星,仍然未能确认。

预测

【需要注意:流星雨的预报不准确性较高,理论数据仅供参考】

芬兰流星专家伊斯克·莱汀恩(Esko Lyytinen)与美国流星专家彼得·詹尼斯肯斯(Peter Jenniskens)在2002年的预测

地球将在北京时间2019年11月22日12点52分接近尘埃团,距离地球约为-0.00036AU(天文单位),辐射位置在赤经117度,赤纬+01度。

可能的较大爆发:地球将在北京时间2043年11月22日18点58分接近尘埃团,距离地球约为-0.00008AU(天文单位),辐射位置在赤经117度,赤纬+01度。

上图的圆圈表示的是麒麟座α流星雨的抛射物在每年11月22日的位置,黑色圆圈显示了多年来证实的流星雨的爆发。灰色圆圈是预测的未来较大的活动。


上图描述的是2个古老的抛射物(点)黄道面交叉的总分布与第一次公转的抛射物(实线)比较。


他在2016年9月在流星邮件组发布的自己的预测模型如下

2016年该流星雨的抛射物(第一次公转的尘埃颗粒群)距离地球大于0.001AU ( 0.0009 ) ,距离远,不太可能爆发。不过,2017年的距离将比较近,距离将小于0.001AU(天文单位)。根据这些计算,2019年附近的距离将更加接近,距离0.0001AU,可能有大的活动。

俄罗斯流星专家米克埃·马斯洛夫(Mikhail Maslov)的预测

暂无预测数据

法国流星专家热雷米·沃巴永(Jérémie Vaubaillon)预测

流星雨的流星体轨道与地球相对位置及状态
下面是网页图
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 

2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045

2046 2047 2048 2049 2050   

参考资料

最后更新时间:2017-11-20

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48 Responses to 麒麟座α流星雨未来的爆发趋势(下次2019年?)

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